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March 30, 2009 at 6:59 am ET
C.H.A.L.K. Projections: Devil Rays Win 113 In ’09

I keep hearing about the 2009 PECOTA and CHONE projections, stat based projections that use a lot of math, which Baseball Prospectus and Angels All The Way pay former and current ballplayers absurd amounts of money to come up with.

And yet, last year I did the same thing — USED MATH AND EVERYTHING! — and NO ONE had a more accurate projection of the 2008 Devil Rays win total than I did. (*using reverse Price Is Right rules, closest estimate without underestimating — the only true measure for a team of the Devil Rays caliber)

So why do PECOTA and CHONE get all the hype? They use math; I use math. What’s the difference? Near as I can tell — it’s that I didn’t have a fancy name/acronym.

Therefore, I’m using my same $/Win Projections that I used last year, with some minor tweaks (full details below, I ain’t afraid of accountability) but with a fancy name/acronym….

Ladies and Gentleman, I give you the C.H.A.L.K. Projections.

(What’s that stand for you ask? Well, for now, C. Chalk H. Has. A. A L. Lotta K. Knowledge — if you got better ideas, please drop them in the comments.)

So, while PECOTA and CHONE are repeating the mistakes they made last year and are still grievously misunderestimating the 2009 Devil Rays (PECOTA says only 95 wins now — and that’s after I chided them for the original projection of 92 wins; CHONE goes even lower with just 89 wins!), here’s how I’ve reached the 2009 C.H.A.L.K. Projection of 113 Wins for our beloved Devil Rays:

The 2008 C.H.A.L.K. Projections had a simple formula — you take the 2007 Win Total and divide by the 2007 Opening Day Payroll. You take that ratio and you multiply that by the 2008 Projected Opening Day Payroll and voila! your projection of a Devil Rays team going from 66 Wins in 2007 to 118 Wins in 2008.

Using the same formula but using our data for 2008 and the 2009 Projected Opening Day Payroll of $62.7 Million, we would have a projection of 138 Wins for the 2009 Devil Rays.

Using what we’ve learned that the 2008 C.H.A.L.K. projections went over by 21 wins, we could simply subtract 21 to get a projection of 117 Wins for the 2009 Devil Rays. But it would be even more scientific cum mathy to again stick with ratios and percentages — our projected 118 Wins for 2008 was 82% of the actual 97 Wins. So by taking 82% of 138, we get our final 2009 C.H.A.L.K. Projection of 113 Wins for our beloved Devil Rays.

Some of you out there may cry satire or homerism, but I’m dead serious. PECOTA and CHONE will be too low again. Mock math if you must, but you’ll suffer the fate of all those who mocked Joe Maddon when he said last spring that 9=8. Only those who lack vision mock visionaries.

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4 Responses to “C.H.A.L.K. Projections: Devil Rays Win 113 In ’09”
  1. X-Factor says:

    This is blogging gold. Gold, Jerry, Gold!

    I love you, David Chalk.

  2. Chad says:

    I predict no more than 90 wins for the Tampa Bay Rays this season. That and a 2nd place finish that nets them a wild card for the playoffs and first round elimination.

  3. Andrew @ EC says:

    Any team that only wins 90 games in the AL East is missing the playoffs. Fortunately, I think that will be the Yankees. (Is it too early to trademark the name “Billion Dollar Bust?”)

  4. Rayon says:

    You are completely out of your mind! Keep up the good work.

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